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That's great, but many of those predictions will be hopelessly wrong by the end of March. That's why it's so fascinating that Ray Kurzweil, one of the leading thinkers when it comes to the future of technology, has had such a strong track record in making predictions about technology for nearly two decades.
So how does he do it. The fact is, Ray has a system and this system is called the Law of Accelerating Returns. In his new book How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed, Kurzweil points out that "every fundamental measure of information technology follows predictable and exponential trajectories. Thanks to paradigms such as Moore's Law, which reduces computing power to a problem of how many transistors you can cram on a chip, anyone can intuitively understand why computers are getting exponentially faster and cheaper over time.
The other famous exponential growth curve in our lifetime is the sheer amount of digital information available on the Internet. Kurzweil typically graphs this as "bits per second transmitted on the Internet. That's why "Big Data" is such a buzzword these days - there's a growing recognition that we're losing track of all the information we're putting up on the Internet, from Facebook status updates, to YouTube videos, to funny meme posts on Tumblr.
In just a decade, we will have created more content than existed for thousands of years in humanity's prior experience. And it's not just computing power or the growth of the Internet. Chapter ten in Kurzweil's latest book, How to Create a Mind, includes 15 other charts that show these exponential growth curves at work. Once any technology becomes an information technology, it becomes subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns.
Consider biomedicine, for example. Now that the human genome is being translated into a digital life code of 1's and 0's that can be processed by computers, it's also an information technology, and that means it's also subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns. When you look at the cost of sequencing a human-sized genome, the cost started dropping exponentially around 2001 and fell off the genomic cliff in about 2007 -- about the same time that Craig Venter's genome project took off.Ga dmv forms
As Ray points out in How to Create a Mind, the reason why typical pundits and prognosticators typically get it wrong year after year is that the human mind has evolved to think linearly, not exponentially.
We conceive of 40 steps as a linear progression: one step after another, from 1 to 40. Ray thinks exponentially, though. That's why Ray's latest project - reverse-engineering the human brain - is so exciting. So what can we count on for 2013.
Think like Ray, and use the Law of Accelerating Returns to your advantage. Figure out the scale of the problem that you're facing, figure out the computing power needed to achieve it, and then work backwards to arrive at an approximate timeline.
Using this simple approach, Ray was able to predict that an artificial intelligence technology like Deep Blue would be capable of beating a chess grandmaster by 1998.
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He talked to a grandmaster, figured out that an AI machine would have to recognize 100,000 possible board positions at any time, and that it would have to have the raw computing chops to crunch all possible combinations of these 100,000 board positions over and over again. Once that required computing power was possible (thanks to Moore's Law), it was time to move on to the next challenge -- becoming a Jeopardy.
Now, with the victory of Watson, it's time to move on to the next challenge - becoming the world's best doctor.
The really exciting feature of the Law of Accelerating Returns is that it implicity assumes that one exponential technology builds on top of the next exponential technology. Something like 3D printing is an example of one exponential technology building on top of another exponential technology. In fact, 3D printing may turn out to be the ultimate exponential technology for the coming 12 months, so much so that WIRED's Chris Anderson is betting his reputation on it.
So what other areas could be ripe for surprise breakthroughs next year, due to exponential leaps in computing power. Untitled Created with Sketch. Big Think Edge helps organizations by catalyzing conversation around the topics most critical to 21st century business success.
This Calculator Can Tell You Ketogenic Diets Have "Profound Effect on Brain Function," Studies Find Dare to Think Bigger Sign up to get more stories like this in your inbox RELATED by Frank Jacobs by Teodora Zareva by Frank Jacobs by Frank Jacobs by Frank Jacobs by Big Think Editors by Frank Jacobs by Frank Jacobs Untitled Created with Sketch.Paddy Power is also your home of racing betting. We price up 2018 Cheltenham Festival odds months in advance of the Festival and so you can access all the 2018 Cheltenham Festival betting you need in advance of the big event, including Cheltenham Gold Cup betting.
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The trip itinerary was well planned and gave us a great exposure to many parts of Norway. A local mentioned that we had seen more of Norway than many Norwegians. I wouldn't have know how to plan a trip like this from U.
Thank you Nordic Visitor. Our trip was fantastic and I would recommend it to anyone, especially if you are struggling with how to get started planning a great adventure in Scandinavia. It was very comforting to be able to contact our travel consultant via e-mail prior to travel and while traveling when we had questions.
We enjoyed the variety of the sites seen, the meals and accommodation were also excellent. He seemed to tailor the pace of the tour to the party, which was important due to mixed age groups. We had a great experience during our visit to Iceland, hotels and car were all good.
The service and information provided by the consultant was excellent. We have just got back home after probably the best holiday we have ever had. Everything was superbly planned and the guys at Kiruna Guidetur were fantastic. In fact everyone we met was friendly and so helpful. The hotels were excellent and the food really great - especially at the Abisko Tourist Station and when we went up to the Aurora Sky Station the girl who did the dinner there was world class, especially when she had to prepare the meal in such cramped conditions, The activities were wonderful - the snowmobiles, the husky sleds, the horse and sleigh ride, cross country skiing and snowshoeing.
The Ice Hotel was fantastic too. It is such a magical place - the snow, the clear air - all absolutely wonderful. A more beautiful place would be hard to find.
Thank you so much for organising the holiday for us. I have been on the phone this morning urging all my friends to go there. Everything in the tour was absolutely perfect from the transfer arrangements to the car and hotel accommodations and the tour format itself.
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